Canada’s financial system expanded by 0.7 per cent in November, Statistics Canada mentioned Friday
The information company mentioned the nation’s gross home product grew seven months in a row after steep drops in March and April. However regardless of that streak, the numbers imply the financial system was nonetheless three per cent smaller in November than it was in February, earlier than COVID-19 actually took root in Canada.
The company additionally says its preliminary estimate for December reveals progress of 0.3 per cent, at the same time as a lot of the nation headed into heavy restrictions to sluggish the unfold of COVID-19.
For the total 12 months of 2020, Statistic Canada’s preliminary estimate reveals the financial system contracted by 5.1 per cent.
By the use of comparability, preliminary U.S. information suggests their financial system shrank by 3.5 per cent for the 12 months.
Financial institution of Montreal economist Doug Porter mentioned the November numbers got here in as a pleasing shock, as the information company had telegraphed earlier that the financial system seemed prefer it had solely grown by 0.4 per cent. The ultimate numbers have been virtually twice that.
Economists have been additionally anticipating a shrinkage in December, as lockdowns took maintain, however Statscan is now suggesting a small acquire for that month, too.
‘The highway forward is difficult’
“We nonetheless imagine that with faculties closed in some areas, and a few extra restrictions, that GDP will possible pull again in January — and subsequent week’s jobs report for that month will present loads of steerage on that entrance,” Porter mentioned.
“Nonetheless, at the moment’s outcome for November and early learn on December do certainly counsel that the financial system total is managing a lot, significantly better with this second stage of lockdowns.”
TD Financial institution economist Sri Thanabalasingam agreed that Friday’s numbers have been excellent news, and referred to as them a “strong report,” however cautioned towards being overly optimistic in regards to the route of the financial system headed into 2021.
“Let’s not get too far forward of ourselves,” Thanabalasingam mentioned. “The highway forward is difficult, and progress seems to be slowing. Even on the 0.3 per cent estimated tempo of progress in December, it could take till November this 12 months for the financial system to get again to its pre-pandemic stage.”